A landmark election
Quick thoughts on last night
Some top-line thoughts from last night.
A country divided: The most stark result is that both the Liberals and Conservatives achieved over 40% of the national vote. Progressives flocked to Carney to keep Pierre Poilievre out of the Prime Minister’s Office, but a huge number of their compatriots voted Conservative, and it’s hard not to see this sharp divide as reflecting a cultural one, where a significant portion of the country support a right-wing, “anti-woke” populism. Are we sliding towards what we see down south? I deeply hope not, but it’s the thing that has me most worried right now.
Impermanence: Already broadcasters filling time on the airwaves are talking about a structural change in the party landscape. It is no doubt massive. The NDP has tanked. The BQ is weakened. The Greens are reduced once again to Elizabeth May. It looks more like a two-party system. But it is important to realize that this isn’t necessarily ‘locked in’ for the future. This was a weird election. The Liberals managed to win some ridings where Conservatives have recently dominated (I mean, they took Pierre Poilievre’s seat!), and the Conservatives benefited from some really sharp splits (see Kitchener Centre, or London Fanshawe). It is likely that in two years, or however long the new Parliament lasts, that there will be some reversion to historical patterns. Just as the Orange Crush didn’t live much past the 2011 election, there’s little reason at this point to be confident that the NDP won’t be able to make a comeback.
Carney’s opportunity: Pierre Poilievre was right about one thing in his speech last night: aside from the Trump factor, the Conservatives set the agenda and dominated on key issues: affordability, housing, crime, and (sadly) carbon pricing. But Carney likely has at least a couple of years to govern, and that means he has the opportunity to eliminate those issues as Conservative advantages, and change the issue landscape for the next election. Much depends on how he navigates what looks like a minority Parliament.
The Trump factor: Trump obviously played a huge role in this election, but it’s impossible to disentangle the Trump factor and the impact it had in surging support to the Liberals from other important events, including Trudeau’s resignation and Mark Carney’s attractiveness to Canadians. It’s impossible for anyone to say what last night would have looked like if Trump wasn’t gunning for Canada. But it’s clear that Trump will continue to play a wild card in Canadian politics. This is simultaneously a threat to Canada and for the Carney government, but also a warning to Canadians about what succumbing to right-wing populism might mean.
How about electoral reform? People could see that their votes are reflected in the Commons. It wouldn’t change this election (maybe), but it would defeat some of the polarizing cynicism.
I agree with the poster below that now is the time for all of the parties to comes together to change the voting system to mixed member proportional. The current system is divisive and archaic.
Conservatives should have more confidence in themselves that they too could negotiate a coalition government to further their policies and values.